Stiftung für Zukunfsfragen publishes international representative study on the reasons for non-voters and the population's attitude to the relationship between government tasks and civic duty

350 million Europeans are being called upon to vote for a new European Parliament next week. However, most of them will stay at home. The turnout is expected to be the lowest since the introduction of direct elections 25 years ago - despite higher levels of education across the board. For the first time, the FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE QUESTIONS by British American Tobacco has asked citizens in ten European countries why fewer and fewer eligible voters are going to the polls. The answers from over 12,000 respondents aged 14 and over from the EU member states Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Russia, Switzerland and the UK convey a problematic picture of citizens' views on current politics.

• For more than two thirds of German citizens (68%, European average 60%), the assumption of "being lied to by election promises" is a reason why more and more citizens are not exercising their right to vote. The rural population (75%), families (73%) and East Germans (72%) are particularly sceptical in this respect.
• The "general dissatisfaction with politicians and political parties" (57%) finds majority approval in every country of the European Union. Almost three quarters of Germans (73%) share this attitude - the highest approval rate in the whole of Europe.
• The third main reason is Europeans' fear that "elections will not improve anything" (49%). However, this argument reveals a divided Europe: around two thirds of Germans (63%), Finns and Poles (68% each) agree with this resigned attitude. In contrast, in countries with a comparatively high voter turnout - such as Spain or Italy - only around one in four express this concern (Spain 23%, Italy 27%).

"Dissatisfaction with current politics runs through all sections of the population. Many citizens are disappointed or frustrated and refuse to give their consent. As a result, fewer and fewer citizens are taking the opportunity to actively participate in democratic processes. This can become a real problem for democracy: If only forty per cent of eligible voters go to the polls next week, a party that achieves an absolute majority with over fifty per cent will only have the support of one in five eligible voters. This will have little in common with popular rule," says Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, the foundation's Europe expert.

No role models. No influence. No interest.
Danger of an "anti-party stance" looms

For three out of five Germans (61%; 45% across Europe), politicians are no longer moral role models. Fewer and fewer politicians still stand for or exemplify values such as trust, reliability or honesty. This calls into question the credibility of politicians and therefore the ability of politics to function. German men (63%) and young seniors (65%) in particular criticise the lack of moral role models. More than two in five respondents (44%) also believe "that their vote has no influence", but at the same time show "little interest in politics" (Germany 37%, Europe 40%). In Germany, it is particularly young people (51%), but also students (49%), who pay little attention to political activities. It is therefore hardly surprising that around one in ten German citizens (9%) state that they "have better things to do than vote". Across Europe, the figure is as high as 15 per cent.

As a result, many citizens are turning away from politics, preferring to complain and complain rather than take responsibility themselves. For them, power no longer comes from doing things themselves, but is done for them by others. In doing so, they promote what they criticise at the same time: They let others decide for them. Reinhardt: "It is always worrying when opportunities are not utilised. There is an increasing feeling of indifference and resignation among many citizens. Brussels is far away for them, the issues seem complex or confused and the significance of the European elections is seen as unimportant. There is also a lack of personal contact with politicians, who are seen more as bureaucrats than representatives of the people. All these political dissatisfactions are increasingly leading to a kind of anti-party attitude, which can pose a concrete threat to the European project.
In order to win back the trust of citizens, parties and politicians must offer more reliability, more personal profile and more perspective and less interchangeability, staging and thinking in terms of legislative periods."

State and private:
What citizens really want!

Do we have more state in Europe than is good for us? Have we become too accustomed to the overbearing state? How much state do citizens need and want in the future? And isn't the often-cited crisis of democracy also an opportunity for more grassroots democracy and personal responsibility on the part of citizens? As voter fatigue and disenchantment with politics increase, new forms of citizen participation are emerging that represent a kind of democratic countermovement. Almost one in three Europeans (30%) already believe that citizens are quite prepared to help themselves more and not simply leave all problems to the state. In Germany, the figure is as high as 40 per cent, with only slight variations within the population.

• In addition, one in two Germans (50%; European average 36%) criticises the large number of laws, regulations and government rules and comes to the conclusion: "Many things would run better without the state".
• Two thirds of German citizens (65%; Europe-wide 55%) agree with the statement that "the freedom of the individual citizen must be preserved under all circumstances - as long as this does not negatively affect other citizens".
• In contrast, only a minority are in favour of a stronger role for the state. Only one in five Germans (20%, European average 27%) would like "more decisions by the state for citizens on issues such as speed limits or fast food".

Reinhardt: "Especially in times of impending mass unemployment, the risk of poverty and loss of prosperity, the realisation of being dependent on one another is experiencing a renaissance. Because the welfare state is 'weakening', people are once again prepared to take on more responsibility for themselves and their social environment. The state and politicians are therefore called upon to further expand or create a new self-help infrastructure in the community. 43 per cent of Germans and 37 per cent of Europeans believe that the state could save a lot of money if it were to support and promote private initiatives from the ranks of citizens more actively. At the same time, however, almost three in five Germans (57%, 47% across Europe) demand that at least half of savings and profits in good economic times be used to reduce debt in order to secure a future worth living for future generations.

Conclusion: With the end of unlimited increases in prosperity, the state ceases to be a provider and distributor for all. This has far-reaching political consequences: The state loses power and citizens' ties to the state diminish. Politics is once again taking place more "from below". This shift in the balance of power is accompanied by a loss of importance of parties and politicians. Democracy is becoming a mutual community and a civic movement.

BAT Foundation for Future Studies publishes new European study.

Next week 350 million Europeans will be called upon to elect a new European Parliament. But most of them will stay at home. Despite a higher level of education across a broad section of the population, it is expected that the number of people voting will be at its lowest since direct elections were first introduced 25 years ago. For the first time, the STIFTUNG FÜR ZUKUNFTSFRAGEN ("Foundation for Future Studies") set up by British American Tobacco has carried out a survey of citizens of 10 countries in Europe, asking why the number of voters going to the polls is declining. Over 12,000 people over the age of 14 years were surveyed, from the EU member states of Austria, Germany, Finland, France, Great Britain, Italy, Poland and Spain as well as Russia and Switzerland. The results give a problematic picture of their citizens where the politics of the future are concerned.

• For three-fifths (60%) of Europeans, the assumption that they are "being lied to in election promises" is one reason why fewer and fewer citizens are using their vote. In Finland the number of people who mentioned these concerns was as high as four out of every five (82%), and it was about two out of every three in Germany, France (68% each), Russia and Great Britain (63% each). On the other hand, it was "only" about one person in two in Switzerland (45%), Spain (46%) and Italy (44%).
• In every country of the European Union the majority of people surveyed (57%) agreed that there was "general dissatisfaction with politicians and parties", with only minimal differences between people of different ages, sexes, income and education.
• The third important reason is people's concern that they "cannot improve anything by voting" (49%). But in this argument Europe is once again divided: approximately two-thirds of the Finns and the Poles (68% each) agree with this resigned attitude On the other hand, in countries with a comparatively high turnout in elections - such as Spain (23%) or Italy (27%) - only about one person in four expressed this concern.

"Dissatisfaction with current policies is running through every social stratum. Many people are disappointed or frustrated and are refusing to give their endorsement. That is why fewer and fewer European citizens are taking the opportunity to play an active part in democratic processes. This may become a real problem for democracy, if it means that a party that achieves an absolute majority with over fifty per cent of the votes in fact only has the approval of one fifth of the electorate. It then has little in common with popular government," says Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, the Foundation's expert on Europe.

No role models. No influence. No interest.
There is danger of an "anti-party attitude"

For almost half (45%) of the people surveyed, politicians are no longer moral role models nowadays. Fewer and fewer politicians still stand for values such as trust, reliability and honesty or exemplify these values through their own lives. This calls into question the credibility of politicians and at the same time the ability of politics to function. More than two out of every five people surveyed (44%) also believe "that their vote has no influence", but at the same time they also have "little interest in politics" (40%). And about one person in every seven (15%) even admits openly that he's "got better things to do than to go and vote".

As a consequence, people are turning away from politics, preferring to moan and complain rather than taking on responsibility themselves. For them, power no longer comes from doing things themselves but is done for them by other people. As a result, they encourage what they find fault with, letting other people decide for themselves. As Dr Reinhardt says: "It is always a matter for concern when people do not take advantage of the opportunities available to them. A feeling of indifference and resignation is becoming increasingly widespread and confused, and the European elections are regarded as being of no significance. What is also lacking is a relationship with the politicians, who are regarded more like bureaucrats than as representatives of the people. All these political dissatisfactions are increasingly leading to a sort of anti-party attitude which could bring with it danger for the project to build a single Europe. In order to win back people's confidence, parties as well as politicians would have to offer more reliability, a more individual profile, more prospects and less compatibility, staging and thinking in legislative periods."

State-controlled or Private: What people really want!

Have we got more state control in Europe than is good for us? Have we become too accustomed to the nanny state? How much state controls do people need and how much do they want in the future? And surely the frequently criticised crisis of democracy is also an opportunity for more basic democracy and self-reliance on the part of the citizens? In the same way, as voter fatigue and disenchantment with politicians increase, new forms of citizen participation are appearing which represent a sort of democratic counter-movement. For example, today almost one European in three (30%) believes that people are absolutely prepared to help themselves more and not to simply hand over every problem to the state. In particular the Swiss (43%), Germans (40%), Austrians (39%), Finns (38%) and French (37%) express their agreement, whilst the Spanish (11%) and Italians (16%) tend to react sceptically. 

• Two-fifths (36%) of the people surveyed criticise the multitude of laws, directives and state regulations and have come to the conclusion that "many things would run better with no state intervention." The Italians (19%), Spanish (16%) and Russians (18%) answer most conservatively, whilst the Poles (55%) and Germans (50%) are considerably more in agreement.
• Across Europe, more than half of the people surveyed agreed with the statement that "the freedom of the individual citizen must be maintained under all circumstances - as long as this does not have a negative effect on any other citizen." In France the proportion of people who emphasise this freedom is even more than three-quarters (77%), in Finland (71%) and Switzerland (68%) it is more than two-thirds, but in Great Britain, on the other hand, it is only one person in three (35%).
• On the other hand, only a minority can show enthusiasm for the state taking on a stronger role. Only one person in four (27%) would "like the state to take more decisions for its citizens, e.g. on questions such as the speed limit or eating fast food." The Germans (20%) are least enthusiastic about this scenario, compared to the Finns (48%) who are thoroughly in agreement.

Dr Reinhardt says: "It is always at those times of threatened mass unemployment, the risk of poverty and the loss of wealth that awareness of our dependence on one another experiences a renaissance. Because they see that the welfare state is 'flagging', people are prepared to take over more responsibility once again for their own lives and for their social environment." This fact encourages the state and politicians to further extend or re-create the self-help infrastructure in the community. Over a third of those surveyed (37%) see it as an opportunity for the state to save a lot of money if it would support and promote more actively private initiatives from the ranks of its citizens. But at the same time almost one person in two (47%) is also demanding that at least half of the savings and profits made in economically good times should be used to reduce debt in order to ensure that the next generation will have a future that's worth living.

To summarise: Now that unlimited increases in wealth are coming to an end, states are giving up acting as the providers and distributors for everyone. This has far-reaching political consequences: the state will become less powerful and the bond between citizens and the state will weaken. Politics will once again happen more "from the grass roots upwards". This shift in the balance of power will go hand in hand with a loss of importance of parties and politicians. Democracy will become a mutual guarantee society and a movement with a sense of civic-mindedness.

Research information

Nations surveyed: Germany, Finland, France, Great Britain, Italy, Austria, Poland, Russia, Switzerland, Spain
Sample size: A total of 12,100 people aged 14 and over
Method: Representative face-to-face survey
Survey period: March/April 2009

Information about the research

Countries surveyed: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Poland, Russia, Spain, Switzerland
Size of sample: A total of 12,100 persons over 14 years of age
Method: Representative face-to-face survey
Survey period: March 2009